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Why One Trump-Leaning Battleground Is Especially Worrisome for Biden

“Like everything in organizing, it’s not going to be easy,” Ted Pappageorge, the secretary-treasurer of the state’s 60,000-member Culinary Workers Union, a key part of the Democratic coalition in Nevada, said in a statement. “But we do have a plan to win and we think that voters, when confronted with receipts of Trump and his chaos, and Biden and his leadership and what he has done for working people, will make the right decision.”

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Few political operatives expect anything other than a close race in the state in November, and certainly not a double-digit blowout; even Republicans expressed surprise at the size of Mr. Trump’s polling lead. Mr. Biden won Nevada by about 2.5 points in 2020, capitalizing on the powerful organizational advantage that Democrats have long enjoyed in the state. And Democrats said their political machine — made up of members of the Culinary Union and party loyalists assembled by Harry Reid, the former Senate majority leader who died in 2021 — was not yet fully active.

Mr. Pappageorge said an enormous political effort from his union, which knocked on more than one million doors in 2022, would begin in earnest by early fall. “Expect polling numbers to start to move as more voters and canvass operations focus on the presidential race,” he said.

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